Consumers may have noticed the cost of chicken meat has not climbed in relation to soaring egg prices amid production losses due to highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI.
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts say several factors make meat production broiler farms more resilient to outbreaks, keeping prices relatively stable.
Chicken meat prices vs. eggs
Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science, Bryan-College Station, said HPAI outbreaks in broiler houses have not impacted meat prices for a few reasons.
Broiler chickens that end up in grocery stores and on restaurant menus are produced in five-to-seven-week cycles. Compared to egg-laying hens, which can be in production for years, broiler chickens have a much shorter window of time to potentially be exposed to the pathogen that causes avian influenza.
Broiler farms also hold fewer birds, he said. Farms typically consist of four to six production houses that may hold 40,000 birds. That means any outbreak could impact 160,000-240,000 birds whereas a commercial egg production farm might house over 1 million birds.
It also takes broiler farms much less time to resume production after an outbreak, Archer said. Following an outbreak, the production houses are cleaned, sanitized and monitored to ensure the pathogen is not present on the farm. This process could take a few months, and the farm could then begin the production cycle.
It could take six months for a commercial egg farm to resume production and even longer to reach full capacity, he said.
“The impact on chicken meat just hasn’t showed up in the grocery store and people’s pocketbooks so far because of the nature of the poultry industry,” he said. “Avian flu is impacting farms and farmers, but it would take widespread outbreaks to impact production and supplies.”
Chicken production keeps prices stable
David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said chicken prices have gone up year-over-year, but production has not been the reason.
“It comes down to the scale of the losses within the context of production,” he said. “We’ve had outbreaks at broiler farms, but it’s relatively small compared to the number of chickens in production.”
For perspective, U.S. broiler farms produced 796 million chickens in January. The U.S. Department of Agriculture January livestock report showed around 2.2 million broilers were lost to HPAI in December.
Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts are higher, $1.75 per pound, compared to $1.26 per pound this time last year, Anderson said.
Another factor that weighs on chicken prices is the demand for different production weights for grocer and restaurant markets, Anderson said. Restaurants serving chicken sandwiches want breast cuts that are specific to the product they serve, and regional farms may be contracted to meet that demand.
Anderson believes the slight increase is related to a combination of demand dynamics and chicken’s competitive price in relation to beef alongside a historical upward seasonal price trend in the spring and summer.
“It’s interesting what chicken offerings from chain restaurants have done to the poultry market over the past 10 years,” he said. “If they roll out something new or special, it can be a market-moving event because there is so much volume.”
Uncertainty still ahead
Anderson and Archer said the U.S. poultry industry may still face significant challenges before warmer temperatures end the avian flu season. HPAI strains continue to be found in migratory birds and other species, including dairy cattle.
Egg production flocks dropped to 291.5 million birds as of Feb.1 compared to 304.1 million on Jan. 1, Anderson said. He expects to see similar losses in the March 1 report.
“Everyone is waiting to get past flu season and get a little bit of respite from summer,” he said. “If there is one positive, it is that broiler production has gone relatively unscathed so far.”
