Texas pecan growers are looking at an above-average crop and are hoping price improvement will follow.
Expectations are that Texas’ 2026 pecan season will produce modestly larger yields than last year, but that disease, extreme dry and hot weather in August could negatively impact nut kernel fill, said Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service pecan specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, Bryan-College Station.
Texas growers did not issue an official forecast at their July conference, but the Tri-State Pecan Growers Association estimate put Texas production near 42 million pounds, Nesbitt said.
Production forecast rises, prices firm
Nesbitt estimated Texas’ overall yield at around 39 million pounds, up modestly from last year’s 32 million pounds.
Wholesale prices were better at times for the 2025 crop compared to 2023 and 2024, with some spring lots topping $2 a pound and approaching $3 a pound in the first quarter of 2026, Nesbitt said.
How the market opens for the 2026 crop depends on a number of moving parts. The volume of the early harvest realized by growers in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas, as well as the quality of pecan kernels in those lots, will influence price points for the fall and early winter, he added.
Rising diesel, gasoline and fertilizer costs, combined with increased spraying requirements due to heavier disease and insect pressure are squeezing margins and raising the need for price support in the wholesale market.
More growers are turning to direct-to-consumer sales to capture better returns, a trend verified in a 2024 survey by the Texas Pecan Growers Association, he said.
Nesbitt expects retail pecan prices to rise slightly this year alongside broader food inflation.
Wet spring fuels disease, dry summer stresses kernels
Every season can be a challenge for pecan growers, Nesbitt said. But it can also be great when conditions and management strategies align.
Trees bud in late March and aren’t harvested until October at the earliest, leaving a long season exposed to shifting weather, pests and disease across many Texas growing regions, he said.
An unusually wet spring in North, East and Central Texas left many orchards needing little irrigation into July, but the moisture also set conditions for pecan scab, a fungal disease that starts with small dark spots and can spread to blacken and drop shucks, Nesbitt said.
Growers also reported higher instances of downy spot and powdery mildew, both tied to the moisture, he said.
Dry conditions have since taken over across much of the state, with a hot, extremely dry spell arriving just as trees entered kernel fill, the critical August-to-September stage when the edible portion of the nut develops. It’s a time when tree water demand is highest.
“The dry weather we’re having now is impacting the development of kernel,” Nesbitt said. “Shriveled, malformed kernels can hide inside normal-looking shells.”
Texas pecan growers hope for good finish
Growers with reliable irrigation have a good chance of finishing the crop while those without water face some uncertainty, he said.
“August is the separating point where pecans can go well, or they go badly,” Nesbitt said.
Producers also faced above-normal insect pressure from pecan nut casebearer this season, he said. They can be the most devastating insect pest to a pecan orchard because their larvae burrow into nuts and feed on the kernel. Producers monitor their numbers closely and proactively control them.
Despite the challenges for individual orchards, Texas’ size and geographic diversity all but guarantee pockets of high-quality pecans somewhere in the state.
“Experience and overseeing our annual state pecan show makes me very confident that there are going to be good pecans in Texas in 2026,” Nesbitt said. “I don’t know where just yet, but somewhere in this state growers will put together the right combination of management decisions, overcome the weather challenges thrown at them, and their pecans will be really good.”
Panhandle
Hot, dry conditions held across the district, with daytime highs above 100 degrees. Rain fell on a couple of days in some areas but was not significant enough to change conditions. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were very short to adequate. Corn, cotton and sorghum were all in very poor to fair condition. Sustained heat pushed early planted corn to full grain maturity and combines started harvest roughly a month ahead of normal. Elsewhere, producers were chopping a good deal of their corn because poor pollination and dry conditions left very little grain on the ears. Silage crews stayed active in corn and forage sorghum fields. Broadcast tillage was underway ahead of small grain planting, and grain drills were going into fields stripped for silage to establish cover and winter grazing. Cotton had set bolls on 60% to 100% of acres, with bolls just beginning to open. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to good, and livestock conditions were very poor to good.
