Hay stocks for winter feeding of Texas’ cattle herd are much-improved compared to last year, but the early outlook for cool-season grazing has been dampened by drought, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
Winter feeding costs are likely to be lower than last year, but the ongoing dry spell across much of the state has cattle producers cautiously optimistic about sustaining their herds into spring.
Vanessa Corriher-Olson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension forage specialist in the Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Overton, said hay supplies are better than they have been going into the past two winters, but the quality may be an issue.
Much of the hay-producing areas, especially East Texas, experienced rainy conditions as the first spring cuttings were mature. Soggy conditions delayed many first cuttings and/or post-harvest fertilizer applications, and some hay may have been rained on before it was baled. Those scenarios all can lead to reductions in hay quality.
“The moisture prevented folks from getting into their fields at the right time to optimize the nutrient value, and if they weren’t able to apply timely fertilizer, that will have an effect on future cuttings,” she said. “I’ve seen some hay analyses around East Texas, and while it may be adequate for mature dry cows, any heifers, stockers and cows with calves will need additional protein and energy.”
Supplemental feeding prices improve
Fortunately, prices for supplemental livestock rations like liquid feed and range cubes have softened some, said Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist in the Department of Animal Science, Bryan-College Station.
For example, a ton of range cubes is about $40-$60 less per ton than this time last year. The higher hay stocks and lower supplemental feed prices translate into lower costs for ranchers through winter.
“Calf prices are still really high, and most producers aren’t going to spend as much on hay and supplementation, which means the cost-per-day to winter a cow is down,” he said. “That translates into more money in their pocket.”
Grazing conditions in decline
Fall and winter grazing conditions may be better than last year, but rangelands and pastures are declining due to drought and above-average temperatures, Corriher-Olson said. Declining soil moisture across much of the state is also impacting producers’ ability to establish cool-season annuals like winter wheat, oats and ryegrass.
In recent weeks, AgriLife Extension agents in counties around the state have shared a mixed bag of results for producers who planted winter wheat and other cool-season grasses for fall grazing. Some producers were moving stocker calves to graze on good, established wheat stands.
However, producers were dealing with challenges or continued to wait for rain before planting cool-season forages. Many acres prepared for wheat and oats are still unplanted due to low soil moisture and a poor rain outlook. On other acres, seeds were dusted in or planted into suboptimal soil moisture resulting in no germination, germinated seeds and poor emergence, or post-emergent failure that will require replanting.
Some fields in a few counties that emerged well were devastated by armyworms and will likely need replanting.
Corriher-Olson said producers should still consider the value of winter forages and dry-plant now or be ready to plant before any precipitation.
“I’m not surprised producers are delaying planting winter pasture and questioning whether they are going to plant, but I think it’s still worth the risk to address the hay quality issue for a lot of folks,” she said.
Drought stalling Texas beef herd rebuild
Overall, Cleere said there is more optimism among cattle producers going into this winter than last year. Winter grazing conditions will continue to be a concern for ranchers until they receive adequate rainfall to support cool-season grass establishment and production.
Ranchers remain cautious when it comes to rebuilding the cow herd due to the dryer conditions they are experiencing, as well as memories of the past two years of serious droughts, he said.
There were 4.65 million beef cattle in Texas in 2019, but the number declined to 4.15 million in January 2024, the lowest point since 1961, after back-to-back years of drought and poor hay and forage production.
David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said he expects the January 2025 U.S. Department of Agriculture cattle inventory report to show further declines based on the high numbers of heifers going to feedlots and cows going to meat packers.
“It’s certainly a different situation than last year,” Cleere said. “Producers will continue to retain replacement heifers, but it depends on whether they can hold back a number that indicates they are rebuilding their herds to pre-drought levels.”
Panhandle
The district continued to experience high winds and very dry conditions. Overall soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Cooler weather provided some relief to newly emerging wheat, but precipitation was needed. The peanut harvest began, and corn, grain sorghum and cotton harvests continued. Forage crops continued to be harvested for silage and hay. Some dryland cotton will not be harvested. Livestock were being supplemented with protein and hay. Pasture and range conditions ranged from fair to very poor. Overall crop conditions were reported as good to poor.
