Texas producers are facing another year of hit-or-miss rainfall, with stark contrasts across the state, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
While many areas received spring and early summer rains, drought lingers across parts of South and Southwest Texas, from El Paso through the Hill Country and into South Texas, raising concerns about agriculture and water supplies.
Panhandle, Central and Upper Coast crops off to solid start
Jourdan Bell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, Amarillo, and associate professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, said the High Plains are in much better shape this year compared to 2024.
“We are not in drought, and this is a major improvement from previous planting seasons,” Bell said. “Most of the region received 4-8 inches of rainfall since mid-May, refilling soil moisture profiles.”
Stored subsoil moisture will help irrigated crops in a region where irrigation often falls short of meeting crop water demands during hot months. Early rainfall supported uniform stands of corn, sorghum and cotton. However, hail and high winds damaged some crops.
“Numerous wheat fields were lost to hail, and some summer crops required replanting,” Bell said. “Winds have also dried fields quickly, limiting the benefit of recent rain.”
Other areas, such as the Rio Grande Valley and Hondo region, also saw timely rain, boosting late-planted crops, said Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension cropping systems specialist and professor in the Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Bryan-College Station.
“In some places, irrigation combined with timely rain gave growers a chance at good yields,” Schnell said. “But early plantings still suffered from poor emergence due to dry conditions.”
The steady rain in the Panhandle and Red River regions are helping dryland sorghum and cotton get off to a good start, he said.
More rainfall will be needed in most areas to maintain that momentum, Schnell added.
But other areas are struggling with oversaturation. Prolonged wet soils can stunt development and reduce yields, Schnell said. Corn and cotton are especially vulnerable to waterlogged conditions, while sorghum is more resilient.
Summer rain outlook unclear
John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Fellow in the Texas A&M University College of Geosciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences said while rainfall has improved conditions around the state, about 30% of Texas remains in drought.
Drought-stricken areas stretch from far West Texas through the Hill Country and reach between Houston and San Antonio. Nielsen-Gammon said much of the drought is hydrologic, affecting lakes and reservoirs. Some of those areas did receive rain that improved crop conditions.
Nielsen-Gammon said there’s no strong signal for a wet or dry summer, though temperatures will likely remain above average. However, a predicted active hurricane season could shift conditions quickly.
“Hurricanes are rainfall concentrators,” he said. “They can dump water in one area and leave others dry. Producers prefer steady, widespread rain.”
Storms pushing moisture north can bring cool, cloudy conditions that delay fall crop development, Bell said.
“Cloud cover and low temperatures can slow cotton fiber development and grain fill,” she added. “We need not just rain, but the right conditions.”
Bright spots amid variability
Schnell said areas in Central Texas and along the Upper Gulf Coast could see excellent corn yields.
“It’s easy to slip into water stress in a hot, dry summer,” he said. “We’re off to a good start, but we need just enough moisture, especially heading into fall.”
Panhandle
Temperatures rose with no new rainfall. Full sun and wind increased evapotranspiration. Supplemental irrigation resumed in fields previously harvested for silage to aid germination of cover crops. Dryland wheat showed more disease pressure than irrigated fields. Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland were in fair to good condition. Crops were rated fair to good.
