Shoppers should find plenty of turkeys, with more sales, at grocery stores this Thanksgiving, said a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said wholesale and retail prices are slightly higher per pound than last year, but market factors suggest shoppers can find deals on centerpiece Thanksgiving turkeys.
In late October, wholesale whole turkeys averaged $1.80 per pound, Anderson said. That compares with $1.69 per pound for the same week last year, when wholesale prices had jumped 70% from 99 cents. Wholesale prices this year have run consistently higher than in 2025, he said, but the gap has narrowed.
Wholesale prices are what grocers and other retailers pay suppliers in the “spot” market, not what shoppers pay at the register. The spot market is where buyers who need turkeys and sellers who have them make a deal that may not reflect earlier contracted bird prices. Anderson said retail turkey prices often reflect store promotions and earlier contracted prices more than the wholesale spot market.
So, what will shoppers actually pay?
“National average grocery store prices for whole, conventionally produced, frozen turkeys in early November averaged $1.26 per pound compared to $1.03 a year ago,” Anderson said. “Of course, your store may have a different price, and they may have promotions to draw shoppers.”
Turkey production rebounds
Turkey production has recovered from last year’s decline of more than 8%. The number of birds going to market is up about 3%, and heavier average weights push total pounds of production up nearly 6%.
“That tells me there are plenty of turkeys,” Anderson said.
A few highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been reported in recent weeks, he said, but not enough to significantly affect holiday supplies. Better demand, higher wholesale prices and lower feed costs have also improved conditions for turkey producers.
More specials expected
Last year, retail surveys showed fewer turkey specials than usual. This year looks different. The U.S. Department of Agriculture retail report for late October shows more grocery stores featuring turkeys than at the same point last year, Anderson said.
About 2,500 stores nationwide are advertising frozen conventional whole birds, both under and over 16 pounds, he said.
Grocers contract for Thanksgiving turkeys well in advance and use them to draw customers into stores, he said. Anderson expects more features as the holiday gets closer.
He said Thanksgiving turkey demand has held up well over the years, while demand for a second turkey around Christmas has faded.
Panhandle
Rain fell repeatedly across the district, with amounts ranging from half an inch to more than 2 inches in some areas. Temperatures cooled. Fog and higher-than-normal humidity lingered. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels improved significantly. Cotton harvest halted as producers waited for bolls to open and topsoil to dry. Most corn acres were harvested for silage and grain, though a few grain acres remained. Wheat and other small grains were emerging, and rain events pushed the small grain season off to an excellent start on both irrigated and dryland acres. Winter wheat was planted across the district and fields continued to emerge. Pasture and range grasses showed noticeable growth after the rain. Hay prices were high due to short supplies. Livestock conditions were poor to excellent.
